There are just some things that are certain in life: death, taxes, and Mock Drafts crumbling in seconds, just like NCAA tournament brackets. We are almost at the finish line, where the rumors and uncertainty will be put to rest, when the NFL Draft takes place Thursday night at 8 P.M. We all, by now, understand that the first two picks are set in stone, with the Jaguars taking Trevor Lawrence out of Clemson and the Jets presumably taking Zach Wilson out of BYU. What we don’t know is what the San Francisco 49ers will do at pick number three. Will it be Mac Jones out of Alabama? How about Justin Fields out of THE Ohio State University? What if it’s Trey Lance out of North Dakota State? Maybe there is a plot twist: none of the above?! One thing for sure, when it comes to the draft, is to always expect the unexpected. There has been a huge rise in popularity in the past few years with sports gambling, and now more so than ever with states legalizing it and allowing you to place bets on your phone. Besides betting on a regular season game, sports books are now allowing gamblers to place bets on where they think players will get drafted amongst many other options. With that being said, I am going to give you my opinion on who I would place a wager on being drafted number three by the 49ers this year, based off of odds through DraftKings Sportsbook. For those unfamiliar with looking at betting odds, anytime you see a minus next to a number, it is considered the favorite and it also means that you must bet that exact amount AND win your bet to get $100. If you see a plus sign, for example +500, it means that it is the “underdog” pick and you will win that amount if you bet $100. Without further ado, let’s look at the odds below and see where the good value really falls into place.
Mac Jones QB (Alabama): -250
Right now, all signs point to Mac Jones being the pick for HC Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch. It seems like Kyle is a fan of all of the QBs that will be available for him, and people seem to think highly of Kyle. That being said, let’s not forget that he opted to draft Solomon Thomas, the DE out of Stanford, as well as skipping out on both Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes! This is why I don’t have a ton of faith that he will make the right choice. For my money, I would not place a bet on Jones being the pick here because I think the next player I am about to mention has higher potential and also fits the Shanahan scheme a lot better. They do have to get this right or else both Shanahan and Lynch may be looking for other job openings in the near future.
Trey Lance QB (North Dakota State): +300
Trey Lance comes into the draft with the most risk but also the most potential. Not being able to play this season really hurt his evaluation, because all that the teams had on him was tape from the 2019 season. In his only showcase this season, Lance did struggle, and so the questions began. Lance going to the 49ers presents the best opportunity for him to sit and learn behind an experienced veteran in Jimmy Garoppolo, whose time is coming to an end in San Francisco. I believe Lance presents the best tools to thrive in this offense in 2022 and beyond.
Justin Fields QB (Ohio State University): +500
These odds should tell you that Fields being the pick at number three would be a major upset, but I am not sure why. People seem to forget what he did against Clemson in the College Football Playoffs, even while he was dealing with an injury. Lo and behold, the rumors began to spread about his work ethic, and then you see a player like him fall down draft boards. I know fans don’t seem to trust any QB that comes out of OSU, but one thing fans have to learn to do is to scout the player, not the helmet. I think whoever gets Fields is going to get a gamer but, as we all know, we won’t be able to judge the pick for at least three years after they’ve been drafted.
Non-QB player: Kyle Pitts TE (University of Florida): +3300
What a nice pay day that would be if you dropped $100 on Pitts being the pick at 3 and they chose him! What a combo that would be on offense, to pair him alongside George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk… good luck, NFC West! While it would be surprising, I wouldn’t risk my money on Pitts because teams don’t trade future First Round draft picks to move up for a skill position player. These kinds of trade-ups are usually made so that teams can get a QB they really covet. That’s why I say that you should just save your money here.
Overall, I would place my money on Trey Lance being the pick, due to the probability that it really can happen, and it also presents a nice value at +300. Even if you decided to play it safe and drop $50 on it, it would still win you $150. There’s less than 24 hours to go, people so buckle up!
