Making a mock draft is an exciting yearly activity, but can often be a daunting task given the great amount of contradicting information and beliefs coming from the various reporters and analysts. Did you ever wonder who you should really trust in order to put together the best possible mock draft? Well, I, who tracked the accuracy of a dozen mock drafts and thousands of rumors this past draft cycle (as well as the two previous draft seasons), have the answers for you.
Let’s start off with mock draft accuracy. Including mine and my fellow Bold Take Scouting co-founder Alex’s mocks, here are the amount of correct picks each major reporter/analyst had in their final mock draft. A correct pick is defined as placing the player in the correct draft slot. For example, if someone had Alijah Vera-Tucker to the Vikings with the 14th pick that is counted as correct since the Jets took him at that spot, as are your usual correct picks like having Jaylen Waddle to the Dolphins with the 6th pick. Without further ado:
- Charles Davis (NFL Network): 13
- Dane Brugler (The Athletic): 12
- Alex (Bold Take Scouting): 12
- Walter Cherepinsky (Walter Football): 11
- Charlie Campbell (Walter Football): 11
- Peter King (NBC Sports): 10
- Kosta (Bold Take Scouting): 10
- Lance Zierlein (NFL Network): 9
- Benjamin Allbright (PFN): 9
- Albert Breer (Sports Illustrated): 9
- Todd McShay (ESPN): 9
- Tony Pauline (PFN): 8
- Chris Simms (NBC Sports): 7
- Charley Casserly (NFL Network): 6
- Mel Kiper (ESPN): 5
- Bucky Brooks (NFL Network): 5
- Daniel Jeremiah (NFL Network): 4
- Peter Schrager (NFL Network): 4
How did Alex and I do so well compared to plugged-in experts around the league? Well, over the past few years, we have been tracking countless reports from each analyst/reporter to piece together the puzzle, and have learned who are the most reliable in the process by calculating records of correct to incorrect reports once the draft ends. Here is the reporter by reporter breakdown of records the last 3 years, followed by a fun section revealing the best and worst calls that were made this draft season:
Tony Pauline (PFN): 123-110 in 2021, 59-78 in 2020, 23-30 in 2019
Benjamin Allbright (PFN): 31-23 in 2021, 5-1 in 2020
Albert Breer (SI): 43-46 in 2021, 22-28 in 2020, 13-5 in 2019
Peter King (NBC Sports): 24-24 in 2021, 10-7 in 2020, 5-5 in 2019
Dane Brugler (The Athletic): 16-16 in 2021, 3-1 in 2020, 1-0 in 2019
Charlie Campbell (Walter Football): 28-17 in 2021, 34-31 in 2020
Daniel Jeremiah (NFL Network): 32-40 in 2021, 26-29 in 2020, 11-9 in 2019
Lance Zierlein (NFL Network): 12-14 in 2021, 14-3 in 2020, 9-5 in 2019
Ralph Vacchiano (SNY Sports): 15-12 in 2021, 8-8 in 2020, 2-1 in 2019
Matt Miller (ESPN): 9-17 in 2021
Best Reports:
3/10: Pauline- Rams really like Ernest Jones.
3/17: Pauline- Mac Jones is a perfect fit for the Patriots.
3/22: Jeremiah- Could see SF moving up because doesn’t sense love for Jimmy.
3/24: Pauline- Giants really like Ojulari and will likely maneuver from their first or second round pick to get their edge guy.
3/26: Allbright- Believes SF moved up for Lance, maintained it throughout process.
4/1: Pauline- Some teams have Richie Grant as the second safety behind Jevon Holland.
4/20: Pauline- Arizona wants Surtain, Horn, or Waddle but with likely all of them gone it is very likely that Zaven Collins will be the pick.
4/23: Larry Krueger (KNBR)- Lance to SF is a “done deal.”
4/26: Brugler- Sees a top 5 of Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Pitts, and Chase going in that order on draft night.
4/26: Brugler- Jaycee Horn could very well be the first defensive player drafted.
4/27: Simms- Absolutely no chance Pats trade up for Fields.
4/28: Pauline- Payton Turner is likely to be picked before Gregory Rousseau.
4/28: Pauline- Kyle Trask is unlikely to make it out of the second round with Falcons, Saints, and Bucs interested.
Worst Reports:
2/21: Breer- The 49ers are okay rolling with Jimmy Garoppolo and will likely do so.
4/2: Campbell- The majority of people in the NFL are saying SF moved up for Fields.
4/7: Pauline- Trey Smith will go in the first 15 picks of round 2.
4/15: Miller- Christian Barmore could be second or third defender drafted.
4/16: Eric Galko (Optimum Scouting)- Jamin Davis, Gregory Rousseau, and Jayson Oweh are 3 of 4 players he’d be surprised to see go round 1.
I hope you enjoyed this article and will keep it bookmarked for next spring when you venture into mock draft season! Make sure to stick with us @boldtakescouting on Instagram, since we’ll be starting to roll out preliminary scouting reports for prospects in the 2022 draft class soon, as well as having interviews with some of those potential prospects on our podcast. Draft season never ends!
