Today we are analyzing Davis Mills, Stanford’s 6’4″ 212 lb. quarterback. Mills was a 5-star recruit coming out of high school, and while he never truly lived up to that standing in college, the NFL world is buzzing about him and he is poised to be a likely Day 2 selection nonetheless.
Strengths: Mills possesses good arm talent. He has a strong arm that throws the ball with zip, along with a quick release. He flashes the ability to alter his arm angle when needed. Mills does not hesitate to resort to his checkdown, and is quite accurate on short range throws. Mills showed a good command of the offense, running the RPO game well, dropping back smoothly, and staying poised in the pocket. As an athlete, Mills is not explosive or fast but he is certainly twitchy and fluid. This gives him good escapability, as he dances around the pocket when he senses pressure to avoid it. Mills is not a special runner, but he is a good mover and has the functional ability to pick up a first down with his legs if it is there. He is additionally very comfortable rolling out of the pocket to the side and throwing on the run. Mills is composed against pressure, standing tall and delivering the ball even if it means taking a hit. Mills noticeably improved his play overall from 2019 to 2020.
Weaknesses: Over his two seasons at Stanford, Mills has only eleven starts, and this extreme level of inexperience shows on film. Mills stares down his primary target, and often throws to covered receivers. In these situations, he offers 50/50 balls and trusts his receivers too much, which he will not get away with in the NFL. Mills’s awareness of pressure is inconsistent, and he takes unnecessary sacks when he fails to sense incoming pressure or holds onto the ball too long. Beyond ten yards, Mills’s accuracy and ball placement is very spotty. He misses open players in the intermediate and deep range, and his deep ball accuracy is especially poor at this point in his career. This presents a serious turnover concern heading into the NFL, since the defense often has just as much of a chance to make the catch as his receivers on these inaccurate throws.
Bottom Line: Despite not having a truly elite trait, Mills checks all the physical and athletic boxes with solid size, good arm strength, and good athleticism. This would suggest that he could become a solid starting quarterback, but he is so far from achieving that standing as he enters the NFL. His accuracy beyond ten yards is dangerously poor, he stares down his primary target, and he takes unnecessary sacks. As highly inexperienced and raw as he is, it does not make sense to use an early pick on Mills, especially since his upside is good but not great. Mills certainly has starting potential, but where he is at right now leads me to believe he’s more likely to become a reliable backup and serviceable spot-starter when needed.
Draft Projection: Round 2
Draft Grade: 4.4 (indicative of an early-mid round 4 grade)
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