Best Fantasy Advice: Week 13

This is it. This is the final week before the Fantasy Playoffs start. Even if you have secured a playoff spot, this week could help determine your seeding. If this is a must-win week for you to get in, make sure you read everything below. Keep in mind, do not bench your star players because you see someone on the “must starts” section. Never ever ever EVER bench Mahomes for Tannehill. Never bench Dalvin Cook for David Montgomery. You get the point. Good luck!

Quarterbacks

Must Starts: 

• Ryan Tannehill (vs CLE) Both Tom Brady and Teddy Bridgewater are out on their bye weeks. This means that those of you who need a quarterback for a week are looking for a splash player. Tannehill may not be that player, but he certainly seems like a safe start this week against Cleveland. He has combined for over 40 fantasy points in the past two weeks, and Cleveland allows the 10th most fantasy points to signal-callers this year. 

• Kirk Cousins (vs JAX) Another safe player eligible for a spot start is Kirk Cousins. The veteran quarterback has been dominant lately. In the past four weeks, he is the QB5 among all NFL quarterbacks. He has thrown multiple touchdowns in his last four games, and he will have his top target (Adam Thielen) back this week. Expect at least 20 fantasy points this week as Jacksonville gives up the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. 

Other Notables: Cam Newton (at LAC), Taysom Hill (at ATL), Derek Carr (at NYJ)

Must Avoids:

• Carson Wentz (at GB) If you have watched any recent Eagles game, or even one at all this year, you know there is something wrong with that Philadelphia offense. Wentz looks confused more than he looks confident, his offensive line might be the worst in the league at pass protecting and Doug Pederson doesn’t know when he wants Jalen Hurts to throw his one pass per game. Should he throw a pass in the first quarter? Fourth quarter? Middle of a possession? He has no clue. What he does know is that Wentz may not be the future signal-caller for this team. Avoid Wentz this week. Avoid him every week for the rest of the season. 

• Justin Herbert (vs NE) Usually, Herbert appears on the “must start” section just about every week. On paper, this doesn’t look like a bad matchup at all. The rookie signal-caller is averaging the sixth most fantasy points per game for starting quarterbacks this season, New England doesn’t have a dominant defense anymore and the game is at home for Herbert. Here’s the issue: Bill Belichick is dominant against rookie quarterbacks. In his 20-year career, he is 20-5 against them.

Other Notables: Matthew Stafford (at CHI), Ben Roethlisberger (vs WAS), Matt Ryan (vs NO)

Running Backs

Must Starts: 

• David Montgomery (vs DET) Montgomery came back last week from a concussion, and he turned an ugly Bears loss into a dominant fantasy outing. He finished as the RB6 of week 12 after scoring 25.3 PPR points against the Packers. Expect him to be around the same this week as he lines up across a terrible Lions defense. Detroit has given up the MOST fantasy points to running backs this season, and they are coming off a game where they allowed Duke Johnson to score 17 PPR points on Thanksgiving Day. 

• Miles Sanders (at GB) Sanders appeared on this list last week, but he didn’t produce the way he should have. Instead, Doug Pederson decided to have Carson Wentz throw the ball 45 times. This led to Sanders touching the ball just eight times (six carries and two receptions). This is unacceptable. Do not expect Pederson to make the same mistake two weeks in a row. With the right amount of touches, Sanders should produce a great fantasy outing as the Packers have given up the third most running back fantasy points this season. What’s even worse is that the opposing running back playing the Packers has finished in the top 12 in fantasy nine out 11 times, in the top 10 six out of 11 times, in the top five three out of the 11 times, and they have surrendered the most points to a starting running back twice this season. The icing on the cake? The Packers are allowing starting running backs to average 23.53 PPR points per game against them. I think you are convinced by now. 

Other Notables: Devontae Booker (at NYJ), Chris Carson (vs NYG), Frank Gore (vs LV)

Must Avoids: 

• Todd Gurley (vs NO) Gurley comes into week 13 banged up from a knee injury. The last time we watched Gurley attempt to run the ball on the Saints terrific defensive line, he scored only 3.9 PPR points. He carried the ball eight times for 26 yards and ultimately suffered an injury. New Orleans has allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs this year, and it’s safe to say that you should bench any running back taking on the Saints for the rest of the season. 

• Benny Snell Jr. (vs WAS) Snell Jr. came in and started for the Steelers on Wednesday in replacement of James Conner (COVID-19). He led the team with 16 carries for 60 yards, no touchdowns and just 12.3 PPR points against a short-handed Ravens team. Don’t expect many points this week as he takes on a Washington defense that has given up the third fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. On Thanksgiving, they shut Ezekiel Elliott down. He finished with 10 carries for 32 yards, a fumble and 2.9 PPR points. 

Other Notables: Chase Edmonds (vs LAR), Jamaal Williams (vs PHI), Latavius Murray (at ATL)

Wide Receivers

Must Starts: 

• Jarvis Landry (at TEN) We finally got to watch Landry play a game without Odell Beckham Jr. and without terrible weather for the first time. Did you see what happened? “Juice” caught eight of his 11 targets for 143 yards, one touchdown (surprisingly his first of the season) as he finished as the WR3 of week 12 with 28.3 PPR points. Put him in your lineup this week against a weak Tennessee secondary. 

• DeVante Parker (vs CIN) Parker is a “must start” assuming Tua sits and Ryan Fitzpatrick starts against Cincinnati. With “Fitzmagic” in as QB last week, Parker caught eight of his 14 targets for 119 yards as he finished with 19.9 PPR points. In games where Fitzpatrick has been the primary quarterback, Parker is averaging 14.43 PPR points per game. When Tagovailoa is the primary signal-caller, he is averaging just 8.27 points. Either way, the Bengals are an abysmal of a defense, and Parker should be just fine this week. 

Other Notables: Deebo Samuel (vs BUF), Allen Robinson II (vs DET), Cooper Kupp (at ARI)

Must Avoids: 

• Marvin Jones Jr. (at CHI) Jones Jr. has struggled at taking advantage of Kenny Golladay missing time this year. Last week, he was targeted 12 times, but he only caught six of those targets for 48 yards. Expect even less production this week against a Chicago Bears team that gives up the second fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this year. In the Lions’ and Bears’ first matchup of the season, Jones Jr. was held to just four receptions, 55 receiving yards and 9.5 PPR points. 

• Brandon Aiyuk (at LAR) Reports claim that the rookie receiver hopes to return this week against the Rams. Unfortunately for him, Deebo Samuel is getting all of the targets right now, and he will man the role of the receiving/rushing wide receiver in San Francisco’s offense. In the games that Aiyuk has excelled in this season, he was filling in Samuel’s role as that type of receiver in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. For now, bench Aiyuk going against a stingy Buffalo secondary. 

Other Notables: Tim Patrick (at KC), Jerry Jeudy (at KC), Jamison Crowder (vs LV)

Tight Ends

Must Starts: 

• Hunter Henry (vs NE) Again and again, Henry proves to be one of the most reliable tight ends in the league. He has scored double-digit fantasy points three weeks in a row, and he is the TE2 of the last four weeks. Yes, New England is not a great matchup for tight ends this season, but with Belichick focusing so much on shutting down both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, Henry should come out with a productive fantasy day. He has yet to be targeted less than four times this season, and he is a big body target in the red zone. 

• Darren Waller (at NYJ) It seems like every time Waller has a big game, he counters that game with a disappointing outing. In his defense, his quarterback was awful last week against the Falcons. Look for Waller, Carr and the entire Raiders team to bounce back this week against the winless Jets. 

Other Notables: T.J. Hockenson (at CHI), Evan Engram (at SEA), Mike Gesicki (vs CIN)

Must Avoids: 

• Logan Thomas (at PIT) This is not a week where you can trust Thomas as your starting tight end – especially when it’s do-or-die week in fantasy. Pittsburgh has given up the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season, and Thomas has proved that he is the epitome of inconsistency in 2020. Be safe and avoid Thomas in week 13. 

• Tyler Higbee (vs ARI) By now, you shouldn’t even have Higbee on your roster anymore. He’s only scored above 10 PPR fantasy just once this season (week 2), and he is averaging less than five points per game since then. Arizona is a terrible matchup, and Higbee can’t be trusted. 

Other Notables: Jimmy Graham (vs DET), Richard Rodgers (at GB), Kyle Rudolph (vs JAX)

Defenses

Must Starts: 

• Chicago Bears (vs DET) Akiem Hicks will be back this week, Chicago desperately needs a win and Detroit has one of the worst offenses in the league this year. In the last four weeks, Detroit has given up the fourth most points to team defenses. 

• Miami Dolphins (vs CIN) Miami seems to always be on this list. They appear on it so much because their defense is great, and their matchups are usually even greater. This week, they take on the Bengals that do not have their starting quarterback nor starting running back playing. They give up the fifth most fantasy points to team defenses while Miami comes into week 13 as the third best fantasy defense this season. 

Other Notables: Kansas City Chiefs (vs DEN), Seattle Seahawks (vs NYG), Las Vegas Raiders (at NYJ)

Must Avoids: 

• Washington Football Team (at PIT) Pittsburgh has allowed the fewest fantasy points to team defenses this year. Yes, Washington has a tremendous and promising front four, but they should be avoided this week because of how good Ben Roethlisberger and weapons are. 

• Cleveland Browns (at TEN) This seems like it will be a high-scoring game. Tennessee has allowed the second fewest fantasy points to team defenses this season, and that should be credited by the MVP-like season from Derrick Henry and the intelligent play from Ryan Tannehill. Don’t drop Cleveland’s defense, just avoid them this week. 

Other Notables: Philadelphia Eagles (at GB), San Francisco 49ers (vs BUF), Tennessee Titans (vs CLE)