From the media’s perspective, one of the biggest risers in this 2022 NFL Draft class has been North Dakota State wide receiver Christian Watson. Watson started off the draft process with a later Day 2 projection but is now becoming a popular name at the end of the first round in mock drafts. Conversely, Arkansas wide receiver Treylon Burks’s draft stock has been trending downwards since the beginning of the draft process. To many on the outside, fluctuations in draft stock after players’ seasons end make little sense, but the reality is that NFL teams place a premium on athletic testing numbers. Measurables aren’t everything, and many players including the wide receiver position have become fantastic players despite subpar athletic testing, but NFL teams are highly aware that there is a strong correlation between athletic testing and success in the NFL. It is understandable that NFL teams avoid building a team on exceptions, and thus a lot of stock is put into players’ testing numbers. This has played in Watson’s favor significantly, while Burks’ unexpectedly poor testing has certainly pushed him down draft boards. At the NFL Combine, Watson ran a 4.36 40-yard dash and recorded a 38.5-inch vertical jump. Those numbers are excellent for any receiver, but also Watson sizes up at a remarkable 6’4” 208 pounds. Receivers of his size are typically not nearly as athletic. Combining his testing with his size, Watson possesses a quantifiable size and speed profile that is making NFL teams salivate. In fact, his relative athletic score (a metric that takes into account many testing numbers and adjusts them relative to size) is a 10 out of a possible 10. For this reason, I believe Watson will be selected in the first round. Many NFL Draft analysts have echoed this notion, including Senior Bowl Executive Director Jim Nagy who has stated that Watson is a top 50 lock. My grade on Watson sits on the border between rounds 2 and 3 because I believe there is a lot of projection involved with his draft profile due to the adjustment he will face against a higher level of competition and a far more diverse route tree in the NFL, but the upside his physical and athletic traits offer cannot be doubted. Meanwhile, Treylon Burks has been my top-ranked wide receiver throughout this process and maintains that billing because I trust what I see on tape over all else, but it is clear that he has moved down NFL teams’ boards. He is a proven, well-rounded wide receiver and constant big-play threat due to his abilities after the catch. However, his performance at the NFL Combine was surprisingly underwhelming, including a 4.55 40 yard dash. As a result, his relative athletic score is 5.76 out of 10. His tape made him deserving of being my top wide receiver and reliable sources have stated that the Combine performance was not due to a lack of preparation, allowing me to feel confident in retaining him atop my wide receiver rankings. NFL teams, on the other hand, are likely pushing Burks down because his testing numbers simply are not up to par with expectations… and not up to par with some of the other performances in this wide receiver draft class, including Christian Watson. Burks is a better wide receiver than Watson, but the gap in athletic testing is massive in Watson’s favor. At the end of round 1, which I believe to be the wide receiver sweet spot with teams like the Patriots, Packers, Bills, and Chiefs needing a wide receiver, I think Watson and Burks will both hear their name called, but do not be surprised if Watson’s is the first announced between the two.
Sources
- Cover Image: https://www.inforum.com/sports/bison-media-zone/mens-sports/bison-game-day-the-maturation-of-ndsu-receiver-christian-watson-to-nfl-prospect
