Every season, the big question is: when should I draft rookie fantasy players? This year, COVID-19 has limited rookie players from receiving the true feel of the professional game. The cancellation of OTAs, mini camps and preseason games have caused a disadvantage to players entering the NFL this season. It will be much tougher to decide who and when to draft rookie positional players. Below are the top rookies who could have an impact this season in fantasy football, but when should you draft them?
(WR) Laviska Shenault Jr. – Jacksonville Jaguars
Analysis: Shenault Jr. comes into the 2020 season as one of the most interesting rookies from this year’s draft class. He has experience playing both wide receiver and running back, but he is listed as a receiver for Jacksonville. Although the Jaguars seem like a team that is willing to get rid of most of their playmakers, their wide receiver group has a lot of young talent. Shenault Jr. joins a crew that includes D.J. Chark, Dede Westbrook, Chris Conley and Keelan Cole. Although there is a lot of upside when you look at Shenault Jr., he will more than likely go undrafted in most fantasy drafts this season. Expect the young, speedy receiver to get better as the season goes on. He should be a key piece to Jacksonville’s offense for the next few years, but don’t expect too much from him this season.
Prediction: Undrafted
(WR) Denzel Mims – New York Jets
Analysis: In recent reports, head coach of the New York Jets, Adam Gase, has been impressed by Mims’ route running abilities. The rookie, and former Baylor standout, joins a Jets offense that is desperate for playmakers. New York was dead last in the league during the 2019 season in total offensive yards (4,368). Jamison Crowder led all Jets receivers in receiving yards with 833. The last time a Jets receiver topped 1,000 yards in a season was back in 2015 when both Brandon Marshall (1,502) and Eric Decker (1,027) did so. Mims looks to become the next Jet to reach this accomplishment, but this may not be the season he does so. It may take Mims a full season to really reach his potential. Adam Gase and the Jets are high on Jamison Crowder this season, and they also brought in Breshad Perriman to start on the opposite side. For now, Mims should go undrafted in most fantasy leagues. He could always be a good waiver wire pickup later on in the season.
Prediction: Undrafted
(WR) Tee Higgins – Cincinnati Bengals
Analysis: Higgins has a lot of upside as he joins a crowded wide receiver room that includes: A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross and Auden Tate. The rookie stands tall at 6’4” and he will more than likely serve as a backup to Green and Boyd on the outside. Expect Higgins to see the field a decent amount this season, but don’t expect him to outproduce the guys ahead of him barring injuries. After being selected with the first pick of the second round in this year’s draft, it is clear that the Clemson product is a huge part of Cincinnati’s future. If the injury bug attacks Cincinnati like it did last season, Higgins could see opportunities early in the season and serve as someone who could end up being a great waiver wire pickup later in the season. For now, avoid drafting Higgins as he will more than likely go undrafted in most fantasy leagues.
Prediction: Undrafted
(WR) Jalen Reagor – Philadelphia Eagles
Analysis: You should know that if you join the Philadelphia Eagles, you will more than likely receive a significant injury. Recent news shows that Reagor will miss three to four weeks with a shoulder tear. The rookie from TCU was drafted by Philadelphia as the future WR1 for the team. He should see plenty of opportunities when he comes back onto the field. Alshon Jeffery is rumored to be in recent trade talks and Desean Jackson can never seem to stay healthy. If Reagor can stay on the field, he could lead the team in receiving this year. Because he will miss the start of the season, Reagor should slip to the later rounds of most fantasy drafts. Selecting the rookie towards the end of the draft is the smartest thing to do. If he were healthy, it would be a different story.
Prediction: 13th Round
(WR) Brandon Aiyuk – San Francisco 49ers
Analysis: Week one will be a huge indicator of how ready Aiyuk is for the NFL. Because San Francisco’s top receiver, Deebo Samuel, is coming off a lingering injury, Aiyuk will be heavily relied on by Jimmy Garoppolo right away. The 49er quarterback is already calling the rookie receiver his ‘comfort blanket,’ and he has yet to throw him a ball in a regular season game. The former Arizona State standout was drafted 25th overall in this year’s NFL Draft as he hopes to be a contributing starter right away. Although he will be heavily utilized, San Francisco isn’t a pass-happy team, so his numbers shouldn’t be too outrageous. Expect the rookie to be available in the later rounds of most fantasy drafts. Selecting him later in the draft means he has great potential, but he isn’t a lock to stay on your roster the rest of the season.
Prediction: 13th Round before Reagor
(WR) Michael Pittman Jr. – Indianapolis Colts
Analysis: The Colts drafted Pittman Jr. in the second round of this year’s draft in hopes to be the No. 2 receiver they have lacked the past few seasons. The rookie is slated to start opposite of reliable T.Y. Hilton. Even though this year is loaded with rookie talent at the wide receiver position, Pittman Jr. says he plans on leading all rookies in catches this season. He surely has a good chance of doing so with a quarterback in Phillip Rivers. The 38-year-old quarterback has thrown for at least 4,000 yards in 10 of his last 11 seasons. Expect Pittman Jr. to be rusty to start the season but eventually emerge as a reliable fantasy wide receiver. He should be available in the later rounds of most fantasy drafts.
Prediction: 12th Round
(RB) J.K. Dobbins – Baltimore Ravens
Analysis: Dobbins was selected in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft out of Ohio State University. He will serve as Mark Ingram’s backup this season, but he should be the future back of the team. Head Coach John Harbaugh praises the rookie and explains that he should have a significant role this season. More than likely, Dobbins will serve as the receiving back that appears more in third down situations. This will generate enough value for Dobbins to be a good RB4 for fantasy teams. Expect the rookie to be selected in the middle rounds of most drafts. Lamar Jackson and company will bring the most out of the Ohio State product, and he should receive around 10 to 15 touches per game.
Prediction: 7th Round
(WR) Justin Jefferson – Minnesota Vikings
Analysis: The Vikings drafted Jefferson in hopes to replace Stefon Diggs. Jefferson is coming off a year where he was third in the nation in receiving yards (1,540) and first in receptions (111). Although he has the frame to become a successful wide receiver in this league, he reportedly hasn’t performed well enough in training camp to start opposite of Adam Thielen. Olabisi Johnson has the edge for now, but eventually Jefferson should mold into a consistent starter. Expect the rookie from LSU to take a couple of weeks before adjusting to the pro level. He should become a solid WR3/WR4 once he receives more reps than Johnson.
Prediction: 7th Round before Dobbins
(RB) D’Andre Swift – Detroit Lions
Analysis: The Lions have made it apparent that they are giving up on Kerryon Johnson as the lead back in their offense. They spent a second round draft pick on Swift to presumably take over as their lead back. The recent signing of Adrian Peterson goes to show that there might be three running backs receiving touches every week. This hurts Swift’s fantasy value, but he should serve as the main back in this offense. Expect the former Georgia Bulldog to lead the team in every rushing statistic, but it may not be enough to start him every week in fantasy. Don’t reach too quickly on the rookie back. Allow him to fall to you somewhere in the middle rounds of your draft(s).
Prediction: 6th Round
(WR) CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys
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Analysis: The 21-year-old rookie from Oklahoma University joins Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper in a loaded wide receiver room. Quarterback Dak Prescott will have plenty of options to throw to this year, and Lamb may see plenty of targets. The Cowboys love to throw the ball while Prescott finished second in the league in passing yards last season (4,902). The Dallas signal caller explains that his confidence is “through the roof” with Lamb. If he wasn’t surrounded by a ton of playmakers already, Lamb could have been higher in fantasy leagues, but for now, expect the rookie to go in the middle rounds of the draft. He has a high ceiling, so he’s worth the risk.
Prediction: 6th Round before Swift
(WR) Jerry Jeudy – Denver Broncos
Analysis: Jeudy joins a Broncos team that goes into the 2020 season with a lot of question marks. Nobody is sure that Drew Lock is the future quarterback for the team, but John Elway has certainly provided him enough playmakers in his offense to succeed. Jeudy is one of those players, as he was drafted 15th overall in the 2020 draft. He will line up opposite from Courtland Sutton, which will create one of the better young wide receiving pairs in the league. Expect the rookie from Alabama to have a great first season. He already has the route-running ability to separate himself from most corners in this league. Don’t forget about his big playmaking ability to go along with his burner type speed.
Prediction: 6th Round before Swift, Lamb
(WR) Henry Ruggs III – Las Vegas Raiders
Analysis: Ruggs III brings blazing speed (4.27 40-yard dash) to a Raiders team that desperately needs more playmakers if they want to compete in the AFC West. He should be used as their Tyreek Hill type of player. With recent reports stating Tyrell Williams will miss the entire season, Ruggs III will take over as the anticipated number one receiver option for Derek Carr. He is joined by another fellow rookie, Bryan Edwards and second-year pro, Hunter Renfroe, to round up the starting receivers. Expect Ruggs III to have a tremendous rookie season as he will be counted on numerous times throughout the year. He should serve as a great WR3 for your fantasy team(s).
Prediction: 6th Round before Swift, Lamb, Jeudy
(RB) Cam Akers – Los Angeles Rams
Analysis: The second-round selection is set to become the Rams feature back this season. Sean McVay and company are hoping he can replace Todd Gurley in an offense that tends to throw the ball a ton. Akers has all the tools to become a great running back in this league. He runs a 4.47 40 time, he has great vision and he accelerates off the line quickly. He also possesses great hands out of the backfield, so expect him to receive plenty of targets throughout the year as well. Like most rookies, it may take him a couple of weeks before he really starts rolling. Expect the former Florida State Seminole to carve out a huge role in this offense this year, but don’t expect him to be Pro Bowl ready.
Prediction: 5th Round
(RB) Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts
Analysis: In his three-year college career, Taylor rushed for 6,174 yards, 50 touchdowns while also providing 407 receiving yards and another 5 touchdowns. He was absolutely remarkable, and that’s why the Colts drafted him in the second round of this year’s draft. He joins a running back room that already features Marlon Mack. Mack is set to become a free agent after this season, so expect Taylor to mold into the every week starter at some point. Early in the season, the two backs will more than likely share the workloads, but Taylor should take over somewhere in the first half of the season. Indianapolis has one of the best offensive lines in the league, and that should set Taylor up for a lot of success in his debut season. He is worth drafting in the third or fourth rounds in most fantasy drafts.
Prediction: 3rd/4th Round
(RB) Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Kansas City Chiefs
Analysis: Edwards-Helaire is easily the favorite to win offensive rookie of the year this season. What makes the running back so special is his speed and elusiveness to draw the defenders’ attention towards him. The issue is: how can you focus so much on the rookie back when he plays on the same offense that includes Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman? Andy Reid is an offensive guru, and he will make sure the rookie running back sees plenty of opportunities this season. Even if Edwards-Helaire struggles to rush the ball in some games, he is such a dynamic receiver out of the backfield that he can make up for it with his big playmaking abilities. Expect the former LSU Tiger to become one of the better fantasy running backs this season. He is a for sure lock to start at one of your running back spots every week in fantasy football.
Prediction: Back half of Round 1
